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The US Election Forecast – Hillary to Win Presidency with 70 Percent Chance

So who is to win the US election?  The polls are showing a ‘magical convergence’ with a 70 percent chance of winning going to Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls models.

Hillary Clinton’s chances of success are up from 65 percent on Sunday, having a margin of victory in the popular vote increasing from 2.9 percent to 3.5 percent.

Nate Silver observes the movements –

As a lot of you noticed, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. We don’t think that’s a particularly meaningful metric, because the forecasts are probabilistic — Clinton’s chances of winning Florida increased to 54 percent from 48 percent, for instance, which is nontrivial but not an especially large change. Still, we know it’s something a lot of readers follow.

It’s unlikely that any further states will flip to Clinton in our final forecast, as she’s too far behind inOhio, the next-closest state.1 It’s possible that Florida and North Carolina could flip back to Trump by tomorrow morning, though probably not Nevada, where Clinton’s lead is a bit larger.

The number he has mostly in mind is “4” – with almost every poll showing Clinton leading Trump by 4 percentage points.

Polls conducted beginning Oct. 28 or later.

Seven of the 19 polls have Clinton leading by 4 points; another four have her ahead by 3 points, then we have a smattering of 1’s, 2’s and 6’s — along with two pollsters, IBD/TIPP and Los Angeles/USC Dornsife, who still have Trump ahead. (We admire the L.A. Times poll for not changing its methodology in midstream, even though the poll has its issues.) On average, Clinton leads by 2.9 points in the polls, although the highest-rated pollsters2 have her a bit higher at 3.8 points, on average.

The range of national polls closely matches the FiveThirtyEight popular-vote forecast for the US election.

Source: FiveThirtyEight

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